Though there were whispers that TRS has made moves to get closer to the Congress, there was no solid proof. It is true that TRS party started attending meetings called by Congress president Kharge in parliament. This is a major step. But there was yet no hint of a formal alliance.
It was only after Kavitha Kalvakuntla was called by the ED in Delhi that she openly asked the Congress Party to join her and praised Sonia Gandhi. It appears that this was a panic reaction from Kavita and not any strategic planning by KCR. Yet, talk has now emerged that Congress and TRS may have an alliance.
The great English writer George Bernard Shaw said “Politics makes strange bedfellows”. So, any alliance is possible.
Since 2014, there has been un-limited enmity between KCR and the Gandhis. Sonia Gandhi thought that after creation of Telengana, KCR will retire to a nice Ashram. The Gandhis got a solid kick form KCR, who decimated the Congress in the 2014 elections. Telengana cost the Gandhis a lot, since they lost Telengana and became a zero party in Andhra.
For 60 years, it was unified Andhra p[radish which saved the Congress on many occasions. Now the call of Kavita has created certain possibilities.
The great Shakespeare said 500 years ago that “Misery makes people seeks strange friends ‘in his book “the Tempest “. The Congress needs friends and the fact that Kavita is facing a serious ED corruption investigation does not want to be lonely. There is therefore a mutual purpose between KCR and Gandhis to become friends.
Advantages:
a. A KCR-Congress alliance will ensure that the entire Minority 10% vote of in Telengana will go to them.
b. The BJP will then have a direct fight, instead of the present triangular fight.
c. If TRS- Gandhis form an alliance, it will send a message in the country, that the opposition is uniting against the BJP. Of course that does not mean Mayavathi in Uttar Pradesh , Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee and others will join the Congress alliance.
d. If KCR allies with the Congress, then Kejriwal, who is under Corruption enquiries, may join Congress alliance.
Dis-advantages of TRS-Congress Alliance:
a. In Telengana, that will mean that Congress will have to agree to contest only about 40 MLAs and in 80 MLA seats, there will be no Congress and the party will be wiped out there.
b. Whenever Congress went for an alliance in any State, it eventually got wiped out as in Uttar Pradesh, Tamilnadu, Bihar. Congress has governments in Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, etc where it fights alone.
c. The TRS has now nearly 100 MLAs. An alliance with the Congress will mean that it will have to restrict itself to only about 80 MLAs and many TRS leaders will be without tickets and political opportunities.
d. The Congress may demand the seats it won in 2018, thereby demanding that the defectors to TRS are without tickets. This will create problems for the Congress defectors and TRS.
e. If Congress-TRS become allies, then BJP will become the natural Opposition in Telengana. Congress and TRS leaders without tickets will rush to the BJP.
f. Congress may demand Chief Ministership. If the TRS is in trouble, why should the Congress show mercy?
The Congress may demand that KCR resign and hand over Chief ministership to a Congress leader. The problem for the Congress is that it cannot trust KCR. KCR might sue the Congress for the assembly elections and then dump it.
The Congress and KCR may need each other and use each other. But neither trusts each other. To avoid any deception by KCR, the Congress will demand many MLA seats and also a share in the power or even first chance for Chief Minister post.
Dilemma for KCR:
KCR will have to assess whether it is better to take a risk and contest alone. The Congress will rightly demand a heavy price. Right now, KCR is the total boss of the Government. But in an alliance, KCR will become another Uddhav Thackeray, bowing to Delhi. Moreover, KCR will have to dump the BRS national party.
The Congress knows that if KCR wins the assembly elections, then it will be out. But for media sake, the Congress will start making positive noises about KCR. So if KCR offers an alliance to the Congress, it will not say no , but play the game diplomatically. Marriage brokers get a lot of fun by just talking about potential matches and cheating the public.
Whether Kavita has impulsively called for an alliance with Congress or whether there have been some secret desires, we don’t know. But the fact is that there will be advantages and dis-advantages in the alliance.
One thing has come out and that is the BRS is not feeling strong enough. That is not a good sign for the future. Till now, KCR has shown confidence.
The BJP would like a triangular fight. But if the Congress-KCR form an alliance, then BJP will get dozens of senior leaders from the TRS and Congress, as they will have become surplus leaders there.
The route map for a BRS-Congress alliance will be known soon. The next meeting of ED- Kavitha will give some indication of the future of KCR-Congress alliance. Wait for a few days! But it is difficult for me to see KCR bowing before the Gandhis as Uddhav Thackeray of Maharashtra has done.