The Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu said; “The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step”. Definitely KCR has begun his 1000-mile journey in national politics. The recent letter initiative of KCR, signed by 4 chief ministers and 4 ex- Chief ministers to Prime minister on enforcement agencies has shown KCR growing in national stature. KCR has been trying since 2018 to get a national stature.
There are 2 separate groups against the BJP nationally. One group is led by the Congress party and the second group consists of parties who are against both the Congress and BJP. Like Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar of Bihar, KCR has been both a Central Minister and is a Chief Minister. Of course, Sharad Pawar has held all posts. Kejriwal and Stalin have only been in state politics.
Like Sharad Pawar, Arvind Kejriwal and Mamata Banerjee, KCR is fast acquiring the skills to try to expand his party beyond one state. Stalin, Nitish Kumar, Uddhav Thackeray, Laloo Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav don’t have multi-state experience.
Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Naveen Patnaik of Odisha and KCR face both the BJP and Congress. In fact, if the Congress gains power in Delhi, then all these leaders will face serious opposition, since the Minorities will abandon them.
KCR’s advantages:
1. In the last year, KCR has travelled widely and become a familiar political face in India. KCR has waded into any potential issue and projected himself.
2. KCR has befriended various non-political groups and also has tried to build bridges with regional parties. KCR has also tied up with Left parties. KCR offers electoral alliances unlike Naveen Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee or Arvind Kejriwal.
3. KCR seems to have delegated government powers to senior Ministers and officers. This has given him time to avoid routine administration and focus on national politics.
4. KCR has sensed that there is a vacuum in states like Odisha, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra where only BJP and Congress fronts dominate. KCR obviously will contest elections only in such states, where no regional party holds power. Now that Mamata Banerjee and Kejriwal are working with KCR, there will be no clash between them.
5 . In Andhra Pradesh, KCR is going ahead because peculiarly, Andhra is a rare state where both the BJP and Congress are absent.
Weaknesses of KCR:
1. For KCR, the Congress is a difficult opponent. If the Congress grows and BJP goes down, then KCR will face danger in Telengana . The Minorities will leave KCR for Congress.
2. KCR seems to be tempted to fight every fight with BJP. While that will get him publicity, such frequent flights will portray him as a divisive figure. Constant fighting will also reduce KCR’s stature.
3. KCR cannot afford to become a figure like Mamata Banerjee, who was raised on controversies. Very few opposition parties are ready to offer leadership to Mamata Banerjee.
4. KCR also should avoid controversies regarding national security, foreign affairs and personal attacks.
5. KCR has to choose his fights well. KCR has to ensure that his fights don’t benefit either the Congress or BJP.
6. KCR does not have a national political team or national-level media talent. This is a big handicap. What is good enough for Hyderabad is not good enough for India! Arvind Kejriwal is an expert in such efforts.
Leading from behind:
US President Barack Obama in 2011 said that he follows a policy of “leading from behind “. This means that without being an aggressive leader, he will try to get consensus and give the impression that others are leading. KCR can carefully follow this option. If KCR is too aggressive in national affairs, other politicians will run away out of jealousy. KCR has to adopt a soft approach.
Leaders like Stalin and Sharad Pawar are very clever. They let others do the attacks and avoid damage. KCR has to find a formula to maintain his high profile and yet” lead from behind “.
Right now, Mamata Banerjee and Kejriwal, Akhilesh Yadav, LalooYadav, Nitish Kumar have no problems with KCR. This is a big achievement in a short time.
But to become a national alternative to both the BJP and Congress, KCR needs more finesse and talent. KCR has to choose his battles carefully. Fighting too many wars will weaken him and others will get the benefits. Stalin and Sharad Pawar encourage others to fight, so that they survive.
Rahul Gandhi is fighting aggressively and monotonously and is burning himself out. Rahul seems to have realized that he cannot be the alternative to Prime Minister Modi.
KCR has to avoid what is called the ‘Thucydides trap “in international relations. Thucydides Trap simply means that a rising power will clash with an established power. Right now, KCR is a rising power. Therefore, in the opposition, others will clash with him.
Avoiding too many battles is the real secret of success. Does KCR have the finesse and discrimination to judge when to fight? KCR should start reading Sun Tzu’s Art of War, which is really the main book for all Chinese leaders for the last 2000 years. Sun Tzu said that the greatest warriors win battles without fighting too much.
Let us see what KCR does. There are still many miles to go!