Tripura is a small Northeast state with only 60 MLA s and population of 41 lakhs. Tripura has a great history and is a state which has a Hindu majority, unlike some of the other Northeast states. The first recognized King of Tripura was in 1325. Tripura became a separate state in 1972. From 1972, the CPM ruled Tripura till 2018 for nearly 35 years. The Congress ruled for 7 years.
In 2013, the CPM (Left front) won 49 out of 60 MLAs and the BJP did not even win one MLA. But by 2018, the BJP defeated the CPM. The BJP secured about 43% votes and the CPM 41%. The Congress got barely 2% of the votes in 2018.
Elections in Tripura are on February 16th, 2023 and counting is on March 2, 2023. There has been intense interest in Tripura since the CPM and Congress, which were opponents since 1972, have formed an alliance against BJP.
The main questions are:
1. Has the BJP become un-popular since 2018? Has the BJP lost its vote percentage?
2. Will the CPM and Congress alliance work? The Congress and CPM have become allies for the first time since 1972. Will traditional Congress voters forget their hostility to CPM?
3. The former Maharaja of Tripura ’s family has formed a new party called “ Tipra Motha” and is led by Pradyut Debbarma. This party has gained success in tribal areas. In Tripura, 20 MLA seats out of 60 are rese4vred for tribals. The role of Trpra Motha has created anxiety in both the CPM and BJP, as Tripura has now become a 3-party election.
Challenges before the BJP:
The BJP must retain Tripura as it a Hindu majority state. The BJP faces an alliance of CPM-Congress and Tipra Motha. . The BJP has 36 out of 60 MLAs and a small tribal party as ally. The BJP had to change its Chief Minister Biplab Deb after 4 years due to poor governance. This might affect voters.
The new party Tipra Motha of Pradyot Manik will definitely cut into the votes of the BJP. 80% of the people are non-tribals. Earlier, there was intense violence between tribals and non-tribals. The question is whether non-tribal voters will lean towards the BJP or the CPM.
The advantage for BJP is that as the CPM has ruled for 35 years, there are good and very bad memories of CPM. The voters might decide to support the BJP, as it looks a softer party.
Narendra Modi is popular in Tripura, But the problem is whether the local voters want the old CPM-Congress or not.
CPM and Congress Alliance:
The CPM in Tripura has ruled for 35 years since 1972. It has now allied with its traditional opponent Congress, which also ruled Tripura for 7 years. Both CPM and Congress ruled Tripura for all time, except for the last 5 years. So both CPM and Congress are old faces in Tripura. The new faces are BJP and Tipra Motha .
Tipra Motha of Maharaja Tripura family : While BJP and CPM alliance face each other, Tipra Motha is the new player. It has done well in recent Tribal council elections. Tipra Motha has asked for a separate state for tribals. It feels that if it can have a hung-assembly, then other parties will bargain with it and agree to give tribals a separate state.
Tipra Motha leader Pradyut Debbarma is a smart politician who knows how to attract media attention. Pradyut has been talking very big. This election will show whether he really commands support or is just a media creation. On paper, Tipra Motha should do well.
Who will win?
a. The BJP is banking on victory with the slogan that it has developed Tripura. Modi says that Tripura has a double-engine government and people should continue, as central government will support Tripura. Narendra Modi reminded the people that they were ruled by CPM and Congress since formation of Tripura except for the last 5 years. Modi reminded the people of some harsh facts when the CPM was in power.
b. The CPM-Congress alliance says that together last time they got more votes than the BJP. But 5 years have passed. It is true that the BJP had to change the chief minister because of poor governance. But the problem for the CPM is that it has ruled Tripura for 35 years and there are mixed opinions about it.
c. Tipra Motha knows it cannot get a majority on its own. But it wants to be the King-Maker. That looks possible.
Earlier problems in Tripura;
The majority Bengali population knows that if the BJP government loses, then there might be violence between the tribals and Bengalis as before. The 80% Bengali population knows that Modi government puts own violence.
It is important for the BJP to win Tripura as there are other state elections in 2023. For the BJP, even if it does not win Tripura, it must hope that its rivals the CPM-Congress don’t get a majority.
The Chief minister of Assam Himanta Biswa Sarma is in charge of the Northeast for the BJP. Defeat or victory in Triprua will also affect his formidable reputation.