It was the Congress which decided the division of Andhra on July 30, 2013. But events did not go as planned since that day. Sonia Gandhi assumed that her word was law and the sycophantic Andhra leaders would just bow down , which they did and her word would be carried out. But since July 30, the entire world saw that people of Andhra are made of very stern stuff . They refused to take the decision of Andhra lying down and started the most massive protests ever since Independence. They followed path of Gandhian agitation and they have attracted the entire attention of the world.
The Congress party thought the agitation would die down within week. But when it continued, they formed the Anthony Committee to buy time and pretend that the genuine protests of Andhras will be noted. But the agitation took a life of its own. The agitation had nothing to with politicians and was genuinely done by people everywhere. The entire class and sections of people were equal participants and this was a shock to the Congress party .
The politicians did a lot of math. The Congress high command felt that by giving Telangana it would get all the 17 MPs . It was jubilant and in fact on July 30, 2013, like a schoolboy who could not control his happiness, Digvijay Singh , General Secretary of the Congress demanded that all separate Telangana parties merge with it. The Congress felt that since it gave bad governance and corruption everywhere, it might not win more than 5 MPs in Coastal Andhra . But it was okay since it would get all the 17 MPs in Telangana. The Congress party was facing a disastrous situation everywhere in the country. Though the Congress ruled for 9 and a half years, it lost the goodwill of the people. It had to try new tricks like the Food security bill and Telengana and other such issues where people will forget corruption and poor governance and the raging inflation of the last 6 years.
The Rupee was declining in value and the prices were going up. If the Congress had to return to power, it had to ensure that it got at least 20 MPs in Andhra Pradesh and Telengana was the magic word. On July 31, after the announcement of Telengana, newspapers were saying it was brilliant master-stroke of Sonia Gandhi and Congress knew how to win seats.
But that praise has become rare now. Generally, all political observers in Delhi now view the Telangana decision as a bad one since there was no preparation and it was timed poorly. Everyone thinks that Sonia Gandhi has committed a
“ Himalayan blunder ‘ Strangely, since July 30, neither the prime Minister, Rahul Gandhi or Sonia Gandhi had uttered a word on Andhra Pradesh. They have distanced themselves from this decision since they did not want eternal hatred of the Andhras . Their minions issue statements. Moreover, Sonia Gandhi never expected the gigantic anger of the Andhras.
It is nearly two months now and the anti-division agitation in Andhra is getting bigger. It is not fading away and ordinary people of Andhra had decided that they will fight it to the end. There is great optimism amongst the people. Incidentally, the picture in Telengana is also not all rosy for the Congress. Even if it concedes Telengana, it finds that the TRS and the TDP are still very strong players and the
‘ Settler vote ‘ is strong in at least 10 MP seats and they will vote strategically against the Congress. The Congress might not get 17 seats and might end up with very much less.
The Congress has its main rival the BJP and particularly dreads Narendra Modi . Sonia Gandhi is never criticized by name by anyone in BJP , expect by Narendra Modi . The rise of Narendra Modi has shaken up the Congress. The Telengana issue was one way to checkmate BJP in Andhra Pradesh where it had no presence at all. The fact that BJP was vociferously supporting Telengana also made Congress anxious to control the BJP in Telengana. If Congress did not concede Telangana, there was every chance that BJP may team up with TRS and other such parties in Telengana and end up with at least 15 MPs . The Congress felt that Telangana it killed two birds with one stone .Get all 17 MPs in Telengana and ensure BJP got nothing. In Coastal Andhra anyway, people will hate the BJP for having supported Telengana . This strategy looked successful in the beginning ,but now it is becoming un-raveled. Un-expected events are taking place.
Sonia Gandhi is not much of a reader and she never read the 19 th century French Economist Proudhon who brilliantly wrote of the “ fecundity of un-predictability ‘ meaning that the only thing predictable is un-predictability. The nice plan that Sonia Gandhi laid to win a few MPs has crashed. But still the Congress was happy since it felt that BJP was also not gaining anything in Andhra. There was much satisfaction about the BJP’s discomfort. The BJP talked so much about Telangana that it thought that it would get all the credit for Telengana and it would win MPs. But neither the TRS or any other party welcomed the BJP. The BJP was like an unpaid musician at a ceremony. Everyone hears the music but no one pays them . After July 31, the BJP found that it position was still zero in Telengana and an even bigger zero in Coastal Andhra . So by shouting loudly for Telengana, the BJP gave a victory of 17 seats to its main rival the Congress.