The 4 -state elections of Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh will be held in December, 2023. After BJP defeat in Karnataka, these 4 states have assumed a big significance. If the BJP does not do well in these 4- States, then the Opposition will claim that BJP will lose 2024 Parliament election. Similarly, as the Congress won 3 of these States in 2018, it must do well. Or it will lose its glory it won in Karnataka!
Some aspects of the 4-States
1. None of these 4 States were won by the BJP in 2018. Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan were won by Congress and Telengana by KCR. Only after Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia defected to BJP, the Madhya Pradesh government became a BJP government.
2. Though Congress won the 3 states of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh in December, 2018, it lost 63 out of 65 MPs in the 3 States. Though the BJP lost all the 4-States, it won 67 MPs out of 82 MPs.
3. KCR must first capture this Telengana state again. Otherwise, it will be very difficult for his party to survive.
The question is will people vote differently in States’ election and differently for Parliament?
State-wise position:
1. Rajasthan:
The Congress won Rajasthan in 2018. Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is a 3-time chief Minister. There is also a big tradition that anti-incumbency works in Rajasthan and Congress may lose. The Congress party is divided into 2 factions of Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. There is a good chance for the BJP to win Rajasthan, as the BJP has been a force here since 1967. Equal chances for Congress and BJP
2. Chhattisgarh:
The Congress Chief Minister Bhupesh Bhagel has been very active and been winning by-elections. New leadership has not yet emerged in the BJP after its defeat in 2018. The advantage is with Congress in Chhattisgarh. But some corruption cases have been filed by CBI in Chhattisgarh. That story is just beginning. Good chances for Congress
3. Madhya Pradesh:
The Congress won Madhya Pradesh in 2018, but lost majority and tested BJP leader Shivraj Singh Chauhan again became Chief Minister. The Congress is led by ex-Chief minister Kamal Nath. It is expected to be a close fight. But Shivraj Chauhan is a strong regional leader of the BJP. Good chances for BJP.
4. Telangana:
KCR party has been making peace overtures to the Congress in Delhi, ever since the Liquor Scam broke out. KCR did not contest Karnataka elections to avoid angering the Congress. KCR faces 2 national parties, the BJP and Congress in Telangana.
There is no doubt there is anti-incumbency against KCR. But the Opposition is divided. The BJP will definitely improve its 2018 election results. If the Congress improves, then it will harm KCR, since their vote banks are the same. Very tight fight as it is tri-angular.,
Minimum results needed for Congress:
The Congress won Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in 2018. After the Karnataka victory, the Congress should at least win 2 States in these 4 State-election. Anything less will be viewed as a failure of Congress.
In Telangana, if Congress improves its 2018 performance it will viewed as a big victory. The Congress has to stop KCR party from getting a majority. If KCR gets a majority, then the Congress has failed and will diminish slowly, as everywhere in India, wherever a regional party wins, Congress goes down. The Congress has vanished in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Bengal, Tamilnadu, Maharashtra, Delhi and Punjab where regional parties dominate
The Minimum need for KCR:
KCR must get a good majority. If KCR either loses majority or gets a simple majority, then it will be difficult for him to rule. Defeat for KCR will mean that his party will start declining as the 2 national parties will edge him out. That is the iron political laws now in India. Let us say that BJP and Congress get 60 MLAs. Then it will be a big defeat for KCR
The Minimum needed for BJP:
After the Karnataka defeat for BJP, these 4-states is a great opportunity. The BJP lost all 4 States in 2018. If the BJP wins any 2 States, it will be enough. The BJP did not win any of these 4 states in 2018. With regards to Telangana, in 2018, the BJP won only one MLA. If the BJP does reasonably well, then it can claim a great victory.
For the BJP, the big advantage is that it did not win any of these 4 States in 2018. So the burden is on the Congress to do well or win in the 4 States.
There is still 5 months time. The popularity of any of these political parties can go up or down. The Congress hopes that is Karnataka Manthra will work. The BJP may rectify errors it found in its Karnataka defeat. 5 months is a long time in politics.