One election is over and the next election starts in India. It is like the rain in Mawsynram in Meghalaya ,which receives an annual rain of 470 inches and rains for nearly 280 days in a year and is said to be the wettest place on earth.
Like the Meghalaya rain, there is no rest for politicians and the next election is just months away. In 2023, we will have Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland in March ,2023. Karnataka in May, 2023 and then Telengana, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram in December, 2023.
1. Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura: The BJP will have an advantage in these 3 states since it has put much attention on North East. In Tripura, the BJP had to change Chief Ministers to face anti-incumbency. Unlike the other North East states, Tripura has a big Bengali population. There will be a fight in Tripura, where the Congress, Left parties and Mamata Banerjee are in the race. BJP must win Tripura .It is a small state with a lot of politics.
2. Karnataka has elections in May, 2023 and was the first South Indian state that BJP won. However, there is anti-incumbency in Karnataka against the BJP government. Unlike, in any other BJP states, where there are strong local leaders, Karnataka suffers from a leadership-deficit. It is possible the BJP will change many MLAs to solve this problem. Karnataka Congress also suffers from anti-incumbency, since it has the same leaders for last 25 years. No new blood has been allowed and same old leaders monopolize. There is Deve Gowda and Kumarswamy, whom the BJP hopes will divide anti- BJP votes.
3. Rajasthan : There is no doubt that Congress government of Gehlot has failed. There is every chance of BJP winning Rajasthan. There is a feeling that Gandhi family has used Rajasthan.
4. Madhya Pradesh : BJP is fortunate that it has a tested leader in Shivraj Singh Chauhan as chief Minister. Chauhan is a very wily and sharp politician . On the Congress side, Kamal Nath is a great politician But Congress has not allowed new blood, as it is dominated by the same old faces of the last 40 years like Digvijay Singh.
5. Chhattisgarh : Congress has the biggest chance of winning Chhattisgarh again as its chief minister Bhupesh Baghel is a wily politician like Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Chauhan. The BJP was ruled Chhattisgarh for 15 years continuously before by Raman Singh and no alternative leadership has emerged. The BJP’s only hope is whether Congress dissidents led by Health minister T.S.Singh Deo will rebel.
6. Mizoram: Regional parties and BJP are the main c9ontenders. Victories in such small sates are difficult to predict.
7. Telengana : Though Telengana is a small state, due to the economic power of Hyderabad, it is more important than larger states. Telengana is a state , like Odisha, where national parties BJP and Congress compete with a regional party- KCR-BRS.
BJP has grown enormously in Telengana and attracted Tribals, Dalits and BCs since it has space. Congress has great workers , but has been damaged by the national leadership. If the TRS does not get a majority on its own, then both the BJP and Congress can claim victory. There is still time for politics to change in Telengana.
In the 5 large and important states going to elections, namely Karnataka, Chattisgarh, Telengana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Congress and BJP are rivals. Except Telengana, ruled by KCR a regional leader, in the other 4 states, they are BJP-Congress states. So the elections are very important and will impact the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Congress must win at least 2 of the 5 states and will be most happy if it can win Chhattisgarh and Karnataka , because that is where the money is. BJP must win at least Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh . In Karnataka, the BJP must at least ensure that the Congress does not get a majority. .
Money-rich States : Karnataka and Chhattisgarh are the Kamadhenus of Indian politics now. At one time, united Andhra Pradesh was the cash-giving state to Congress party. Now that the Congress is out in Andhra and Telengana , it depends on Karnataka and Chhattisgarh. Every Telugu knows how rich businessmen got tickets and positions during Congress rule in Andhra Pradesh and in Delhi. Now the rich greedy politicians have disappeared in Andhra and Telengana
Every Congress Delhi leader wanted to be in charge of Andhra to loot it and they did. Now of course, such exploiters have closed their purses and even stopped talking about Congress. But Chhattisgarh and Karnataka have now become infected with the “ Telugu disease’ of money politics.
If the Congress wins Karnataka and Chhattisgarh, then it will pose a big challenge to BJP and Modi in 2024. Therefore, the first target of BJP will be to ensure that either it wins Chhattisgarh and Karnataka or at least stops the Congress from winning them. Karnataka and Chhattisgarh are the key election states now
Many political observers say that after Second World war in 1945, one of the reasons that Britain declined as a Super Power, is the “ English disease’ , a system where there were frequent by-elections and even parliament could be dissolved at any time.
India may become a victim of the ‘ English disease”, where there are elections all the time.