Options Before BJP in Andhra Pradesh
The sudden divorce between the BJP and Telugu Desam in Andhra Pradesh had few parallels in a political breakup in India . Neither TDP expected the breakup or BJP was prepared for it. Chandra Babu Naidu was sure that the BJP would give some face-saving arrangements after the Budget in February, 2018 and TDP could continue its alliance.
Chandra Babu Naidu also miscalculated that Narendra Modi and Amit Shah would be afraid of a breakup with TDP and would compromise. But Naidu had really no powerful friends in top BJP leadership. Strangely, Chandra Babu Naidu, a great public relations expert, had very poor representatives in Delhi to cultivate the BJP.
On the BJP side, its Andhra Ministers. MLAs and MPs and those who benefited from the state alliance with TDP thought that the TDP would never leave the BJP. The BJP Ministers and leaders who benefitted from TDP alliance could never talk to the real central leaders. They talked to second and third rung leaders and media spokespersons as if they mattered and had no access to Modi and Amit Shah.
There is no way that the BJP can hope to win many MLAs, depending solely on Narendra Modi’s charisma in Andhra Pradesh. For the BJP, Bengal and Odisha offer opportunities. But Andhra Pradesh now represents the same situation as Tamilnadu, where all the political space is taken up. Like in Tamilnadu, the BJP has a definite vote bank in Andhra Pradesh and it might vary from 5 – 10%.
1. The TDP has lost an important ally whose votes were transferable. The BJP voters usually have a national perspective and transfers support to suit the BJP . The BJP also has many lower end leaders who work selflessly and are an asset. In many urban seats, the BJP has even up to 10% of the votes. The BJP has now marginally expanded in rural areas and is not a stranger.
2. The BJP has lost 4 years of power. The BJP was satisfied with a few Ministerships, MLCs and petty rewards. No new leaders were invited or given high profile jobs. It was only when things became desperate that the BJP appointed Kanna Lakshminarayana as state President.
3. The TDP has lost Upper castes, urban elites and educated youth. In 2014, the TDP won with the support of Pawan Kalyan and BJP. The TDP might belittle the contributions of BJP and Pawan Kalyan . But even if both together contributed 15% of the votes, then that is the only reason that TDP won. Now both these parties have left and the TDP has only its original vote and caste bank of 30- 35% votes.
4. The TDP has openly stated that it will oppose Narendra Modi and BJP at all costs and will support any other party at the national level. This means that every MP seat that the TDP wins is an anti-Modi seat. Therefore, logic dictates that the BJP should ensure that it should tactically aim for TDP defeat as it cannot win anywhere. If TDP loses, then BJP wins!
5. The TDP is fully aware of the dangers posed by Pawan Kalyan and the BJP. The TDP knows that if the Opposition unites either aggressively or passively against it, then its game is over. The main objective of the TDP under Chandra Babu Naidu is to ensure that the BJP and other parties do not have any open or secret accord.
6. If the TDP has 35% solid vote bank, it needs to ensure that other parties do not have any unity. The BJP should have a counter-strategy of not minding defeat but to inflict a defeat on the TDP. The BJP can extract revenge only by ensuring that its votes are not wasted but go to any candidate who can defeat the TDP.
7. Kamikaze Japanese pilots: During the Second World War( 1939-1945 ), when Japan was fighting both the USA and England , it started losing the war . There was no chance of victory and so Japan developed a very basic airplane, with only an engine and bombs in the front. The pilots were called “Kamiikaze pilots”, who job was to fly this plane high into the sky and come crashing into the war ships of its enemies. “Kamikaze pilots “caused immense damage and slowed down Japan’s defeat. Similarly, BJP has no chance of winning many seats in Andhra Pradesh. But it can defeat the TDP by tactically losing like the Japanese Kamikaze pilots. The BJP can defeat TDP by transferring votes everywhere in 2019. Tactical voting is the major weapon that BJP has in Andhra Pradesh.
The real test for Andhra Pradesh BJP leaders is to inform the top Delhi BJP leaders that the best strategy for the BJP would be to tactically transfer votes to defeat its main opponent TDP.
Tactical voting and vote-transfer is the only way for BJP to be a key force in 2019 in Andhra Pradesh.